In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years off, prediction markets are already establishing prices across the field, including Republican succession scenarios following Trump's constitutional ineligibility and Democratic primary matchups that remain fluid. Traders who spot mispricing in these nascent markets can capitalise on extended holding periods before the candidate pool consolidates.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's third-term prohibition leaves the Republican nomination wide open:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency advantage, alignment with Trump's base
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Gubernatorial track record, recovery following 2024 primary underperformance
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centre-right positioning, international relations experience
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia governor with executive and corporate experience
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Populist economic messaging resonance
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficient breadth for emerging challengers
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading contender with party machinery backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence via Transportation portfolio
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — West Coast executive with rising national prominence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Competitive swing-state governor from Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Sufficient runway for fresh entrants by 2028
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (near parity given temporal distance)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Engaging with 2028 markets at this juncture provides:
- Elevated volatility stemming from information scarcity, enabling outsized gains from prescient positioning
- Extended timeframes for thesis development as new data emerges
- Entry points at depressed valuations before catalysts drive candidate odds upward
Consideration: nascent markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to surprise announcements and candidate availability shifts.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Precedent is mixed: sitting VPs have succeeded (Bush Sr. following Reagan in 1988) and failed (Gore's 2000 loss despite incumbency). Current prediction markets reflect Vance as the leading contender whilst acknowledging meaningful uncertainty.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both Republican and Democratic nomination contracts settle following their respective national conventions — customarily scheduled for July and August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Early-stage markets for Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries typically materialise 6-12 months prior to voting — consult PolyGram's political markets section for current availability.