In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and market breadth. Kalshi stands out as the sole US-regulated venue. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting without financial stakes. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram remains the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide breaks down how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most liquid orderbooks in politics and digital assets |
| Markets | Over 1,000 live markets. Spanning politics, digital assets, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | Zero house edge. Bid-ask spreads range from 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon blockchain (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Experienced traders leveraging proprietary research and market insights |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market operator. It welcomes US-based participants who cannot access Polymarket and has experienced considerable expansion. Trade-offs include: narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates on a virtual currency system ("mana") instead of genuine funds. This makes it an excellent environment for honing forecasting abilities and engaging with community-driven prediction — though it lacks the profit motive for serious traders. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates quantitative forecasts submitted by its specialist community. Whilst no financial incentives are involved, it excels at establishing forecasting credentials and addressing complex global scenarios. The platform's methodology frequently appears in peer-reviewed studies examining forecast calibration.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues processing enormous volumes across sports and political wagering annually. Strengths include: traditional currency support, FCA authorisation, substantial sports market depth. Limitations: 2-5% rake on net profits, absence of blockchain-based assets, less extensive political market coverage than Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For traders outside the US seeking maximum market depth and selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain interactions while preserving full access to Polymarket's complete order book. Start trading on PolyGram →