Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic confirmed in late March 2026 that Claude Mythos, an unreleased model described in a data leak as their most capable system to date, had entered early access testing. The leak detailed significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity capabilities. The company neither denied the model's existence nor its specifications, effectively validating the leak's core claims whilst maintaining control over the release timeline. This market resolves affirmatively only if Anthropic formally releases Claude Mythos or explicitly confirms a released model as identical to the leaked version before 30 April 2026.

Historical precedent suggests caution in assuming rapid public releases following confirmed leaks. When OpenAI's o1 model was referenced in internal discussions before official announcement, the gap between confirmation and public availability spanned months. Similarly, Anthropic's own Claude 3.5 Sonnet required weeks between initial hints and general availability. The 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism that a model in "early access" will transition to full public release within five weeks, a compressed timeline for enterprise AI rollouts.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements and developer documentation closely. The company typically signals release windows through blog posts and API updates rather than surprise launches. Watch for changes to Anthropic's pricing page, API documentation, or developer terms of service—these often precede public availability by days. Any statement from leadership regarding Claude Mythos's release schedule would constitute a material catalyst. The settlement window's proximity to Q2 earnings season means enterprise customer announcements could also drive market movement if they reference Mythos access.

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.