Bitcoin price on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the final closing price of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 24 June 2026, derived from the one-minute candle. A power-user would approach this programmatically by querying Binance’s public API for the specific 1m candle close, then applying conditional logic to resolve the bracket if the value falls between ranges. The current 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the market expects Bitcoin to trade below the lowest bracket threshold, a stance that aligns with recent price action where BTC hovered near $61,000–$64,000.

Historically, similar prediction markets have resolved based on short-term volatility spikes rather than sustained trends. In mid-2026, Bitcoin crossed $64,000 with a 1.11% daily gain, yet remained below $65,000, indicating limited upward momentum[1]. Comparable cases show that when prices linger near $62,000–$63,000, markets often resolve to the lower bracket unless a catalyst triggers a breakout. The current probability reflects this pattern, assuming no major disruption will push BTC above the threshold.

Traders should monitor scheduled catalysts such as US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, SEC crypto enforcement announcements, and major exchange listings. A recent Binance price prediction model forecasts BTC to rise 5% by end of week, potentially reaching $62,513, but this remains below typical upper brackets[2]. Dependencies include macroeconomic data releases and geopolitical developments that could alter risk sentiment. Without a clear catalyst, the market’s 0% probability is a rational assessment of current price stability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.