Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The resolution mechanism is straightforward: Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp serves as the single source of truth. For traders building automated monitoring systems, this creates a precise, auditable trigger point—the noon ET window eliminates ambiguity around intraday volatility and allows conditional orders to execute against a known reference time rather than a rolling average or multiple exchanges.

Historical Bitcoin price brackets reveal substantial volatility across comparable timeframes. In May 2021, Bitcoin ranged from roughly $30,000 to $65,000 within the month; by May 2022, it had collapsed to the $25,000–$35,000 band following the Terra collapse and Fed tightening signals. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either extreme uncertainty about which bracket will be hit or insufficient liquidity to establish consensus. Traders evaluating this market should note that a 12-month forward view introduces macroeconomic dependencies—regulatory announcements, central bank policy shifts, and institutional adoption trends all carry outsized influence on spot prices at such horizons.

Key catalysts to monitor include US monetary policy decisions (the Fed's rate trajectory through 2026), potential Bitcoin ETF developments or regulatory clarifications from the SEC, and geopolitical events affecting risk appetite. Bloomberg and CoinDesk regularly publish scheduled announcements; setting up API-based price feeds from Binance now allows traders to backtest their bracket assumptions against historical volatility patterns and refine entry logic before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.