Bitcoin price on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final one-minute closing price of Bitcoin on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 27 June 2026, which will determine whether the market resolves to a specific price bracket or to "No". With a current crowd-implied probability of just 2% for the "YES" outcome, the market is pricing in a near-certainty that Bitcoin will not reach the target threshold, likely reflecting recent price weakness and macro uncertainty.

Historical context shows Bitcoin has swung from an all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025 to a low of $60,074 in early 2026, with spot prices hovering around $60,000 as of mid-June 2026[3][7]. Comparable markets, such as the "What price will Bitcoin hit on June 26?" prediction, assigned 100% probability to outcomes below $60,000, reinforcing the pattern of subdued valuations in Q2 2026[1]. This suggests the current 2% probability is consistent with recent price behaviour and not an outlier.

Traders should monitor ETF inflows, which must exceed $200 million daily to signal renewed bullish sentiment, and Federal Reserve policy shifts, as interest rate expectations remain a dominant variable for Bitcoin[5]. Recent analysis from Binance notes that while $150,000 is a plausible short-term target, the consensus expects Bitcoin to approach $160,000 in Q2, yet the $300,000 threshold remains nearly impossible given current liquidity conditions[4]. Programmatically, conditional orders should be set to trigger only if ETF inflows sustain above the $200 million mark and if price breaks the $78,000–$80,000 resistance zone, which has faced significant selling pressure in May[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.