What price will Bitcoin hit on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 11 June 2026 will be determined by spot and futures markets across major exchanges. The settlement window closes on 12 June at 04:00 UTC, meaning any price target must be hit during the preceding calendar day in the relevant timezone. Traders automating this market via conditional orders or bots will need to specify which exchange's price feed triggers settlement—Coinbase, Kraken, and CME futures all report slightly different values at any given moment, and historical volatility around key dates often exceeds 5% intraday.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about what price level the market is even asking for. Without a specific target stated in the market description, traders face a binary interpretation problem: either the market resolves on whether Bitcoin reaches *any* new price (trivially YES), or it requires a predetermined threshold that hasn't been published. Comparable resolution disputes in crypto markets—such as the 2021 "Bitcoin hits $100k" markets that hinged on timing and exchange selection—show how ambiguity collapses liquidity. Historical precedent suggests markets with vague settlement criteria either clarify via amendment or resolve as invalid.

Catalysts between now and June 2026 include Federal Reserve policy shifts, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and any major regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies. Traders building algorithmic strategies should monitor scheduled FOMC meetings, quarterly options expiry dates, and any announced changes to custody or staking rules. The absence of a defined price target in the market description itself remains the primary risk factor for position holders.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.