Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal match between Sashi Esport and AM Gaming, scheduled for 8:00 AM ET on 25 June 2026 in the Super DraculaN Group A. Sashi Esport, a Danish professional organisation with total winnings of $158,047, faces AM Gaming in a decisive BO3 where the winner is determined solely by match victory. The crowd-implied probability of 100% YES suggests near-certainty that Sashi Esport will win, though the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner.

Historically, 100% crowd probabilities in esports prediction markets have rarely held when teams share a balanced head-to-head record. Sashi Esport and AM Gaming currently exhibit a 1-win, 1-lose streak in their last five CS2 encounters, indicating genuine competitive volatility rather than a dominant mismatch [1]. Comparable cases from the 2025 Counter-Strike season show that even heavily favoured teams can lose lower-bracket matches when the opponent has recent H2H success, making the 100% figure an outlier that demands scrutiny for potential market inefficiency or unannounced roster changes.

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for roster updates, schedule shifts, or match cancellations, as these dependencies directly impact settlement outcomes. A recent Liquipedia update confirms Sashi Esport’s active participation in Counter-Strike 2, but no new roster information has been released since 23 June 2026 [3]. Programmatically, conditional orders should be set to exit if the match time is delayed beyond 7 days or if the tournament bracket is restructured, as these triggers invalidate the 100% assumption. The settlement window ends 15:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, requiring real-time monitoring of live score feeds to confirm match completion before resolution [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.