Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Zero Tenacity met summer bear in the European Pro League playoffs, a best-of-three that sits in the lower bracket and therefore only needs one side to take two maps to advance. The match has already been played and the available scoreboards show Zero Tenacity winning 2-1, which makes the crowd-implied 0% YES price look detached from the recorded result rather than a live toss-up.[1][2]

For traders building around the market mechanically, this is the kind of event where the first check is whether the settlement timestamp still matters: once a completed result is available from a reliable scoreboard or tournament page, an exchange position should be treated as a data-verification problem, not a forecasting one. Liquipedia lists European Pro League Season 38 as running from 4 to 21 June 2026, and both Strafe and GosuGamers record the same fixture and final winner, with Zero Tenacity above summer bear in the match history and pre-match weighting.[1][2][3]

The practical catalysts are straightforward: official bracket updates, scoreboard confirmation, and any change to the published match start time or completed map count. Because the market settles to 50-50 only if the game is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, programmatic traders usually watch for a completed BO3 result first, then only fall back to delay logic if the tournament page or live score data stops updating.[3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.