Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy rate sits at the centre of global financial conditions. Between March and June 2026, the FOMC will convene three times to decide whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate moves up, down, or remains unchanged. Each meeting outcome—a cut, a hike, or a hold—determines whether this market resolves YES or NO. The current 0% crowd probability reflects expectations that no rate change will occur across all three sessions, though the mechanics of conditional orders and algorithmic tracking make this a natural candidate for programmatic monitoring against incoming inflation and employment data.

Historical precedent suggests extended hold periods are common when the Fed navigates uncertainty. From late 2023 through mid-2024, the FOMC held rates steady for six consecutive meetings whilst assessing labour market resilience and disinflation progress. The comparable setup here—three meetings spanning 90 days—requires traders to track not just the consensus view but the distribution of outcomes across individual meetings, since a single cut or hike at any point triggers resolution. Automated alerts tied to FOMC statement releases and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) become essential for capturing probability shifts before crowd repricing occurs.

Catalysts centre on monthly employment reports (February, March, April, May), the Consumer Price Index releases preceding each meeting, and any unexpected economic data that shifts recession or inflation expectations. The Fed's December 2025 communications and January inflation readings will establish the baseline against which March conditions are evaluated. Traders using conditional orders should anchor thresholds to the PCE deflator and non-farm payrolls figures, as these historically drive FOMC signalling most directly.

Methodology

This page reviews Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.