Fed Decision in July?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene in July 2026 to set monetary policy. This market resolves based on whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changes, and by how many basis points. The 92% crowd probability reflects near-certainty that a decision will occur—which is accurate, as FOMC meetings are scheduled events. The substantive question traders face is directional: whether the Committee will hold rates steady, cut, or raise them.

Historical precedent suggests rate decisions cluster around multiples of 25 basis points. Since the Fed resumed rate cuts in September 2024, moves have followed this convention. The Committee's recent pattern—responding to inflation data, employment figures, and economic growth signals—provides the framework for assessing July's outcome. Comparable July meetings in 2023 and 2024 saw the Fed navigate mid-year economic reassessments, with decisions hinging on cumulative data rather than single releases.

Traders should monitor June's Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures reports, released before the July meeting, alongside June employment data. The Fed's communications in prior meetings and any interim economic surprises will shape expectations. For programmatic approaches, conditional orders tied to specific CPI or PCE thresholds can automate position adjustments as new data arrives. The settlement window closes 29 July 2026, giving traders roughly 48 hours post-announcement to settle positions. The rounding rule—any change not matching displayed options rounds up to the nearest 25 basis points—means traders should account for the possibility of unconventional moves, though historical discipline suggests this remains unlikely.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.