Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Lower bracket final in The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria faced the bug on 26 June. The match concluded 2–0 in favour of 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, meaning the market resolves to "4 Anchors and Ilmeria" rather than the 50% crowd-implied probability suggested before settlement[1][3].

Historically, lower bracket finals in regional qualifiers for The International show a strong tendency for the team with superior recent form to secure a clean sweep, as seen in 2025’s NA qualifiers where the higher-ranked side won 2–0 in 78% of cases[7]. Current probabilities often lag behind live form when matches are scheduled late in the day, creating a temporary mispricing that programmatically traded bots exploit via conditional orders triggered on pre-match roster confirmations[2].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for schedule shifts or roster dependencies, particularly in the final 24 hours before play, as delays can trigger the 50–50 resolution clause if unresolved beyond seven days[4]. Recent coverage from Strafe Esports confirms the match outcome and highlights the importance of verifying live stream timestamps to avoid false settlement signals[1]. Always cross-reference multiple data feeds when building automated strategies for esports markets to ensure accuracy in resolution logic.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.