England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 9% probability assigned to this specific exact-score outcome reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise match results; across major tournaments, exact scores typically cluster around common patterns (1–0, 1–1, 2–1, 2–0) whilst less frequent scorelines carry substantially lower odds.

Historical precedent from recent World Cups shows that group-stage matches between established sides produce a wide distribution of outcomes. England and Croatia last met competitively in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, which Croatia won 2–1 after extra time; their qualifying record and tournament pedigree suggest neither side is likely to produce extreme scorelines. The current probability of 9% for any single exact score is consistent with baseline expectations when outcomes are distributed across 30+ possible results. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should note that group-stage fixtures typically see tighter defensive structures than knockout rounds, reducing the likelihood of high-scoring affairs.

Key variables to monitor include team news closer to the fixture date—injuries to key players in either squad could shift expected goal distributions—and the specific group composition, which determines whether either side needs a particular result. Recent form during qualifying and any warm-up friendlies in May 2026 will provide updated calibration data. Conditional order logic should account for correlated movements across related markets (match winner, total goals) to identify arbitrage opportunities as new information emerges.

Methodology

This page reviews England vs. Croatia - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.