Haiti vs. Scotland

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June. The 62% implied probability favours Haiti, reflecting expectations around relative competitive strength and recent form. Settlement occurs at 01:00 UTC on 14 June, immediately following the final whistle.

Haiti's qualification for the 2026 World Cup marked their first appearance since 1974, a significant achievement that has elevated their standing in regional rankings. Scotland, conversely, has struggled to progress beyond group stages in recent tournaments; they exited the 2022 Qatar World Cup without advancing and have not reached a knockout round since 1998. Historical head-to-head records between these nations are sparse, but Haiti's recent CONCACAF qualification run—including victories over Jamaica and Panama—suggests competitive momentum. Comparable markets pricing Caribbean nations in 2026 group matches have generally reflected underdog status, though Haiti's qualification narrative has shifted baseline expectations.

Traders monitoring squad announcements and injury updates should track both federations' official communications through May 2026. Scotland's manager selection and final squad composition, typically confirmed by early June, will signal tactical approach and available personnel. Haiti's preparation camps and any late withdrawals merit attention, as depth in key positions remains a constraint. Weather conditions in the host nation and venue assignments, released by FIFA in advance, may influence match dynamics and should be factored into conditional order logic. Pre-match odds from major sportsbooks will provide real-time calibration points for algorithmic traders seeking basis opportunities between this market and traditional betting markets.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.