Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in July 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, faces a settlement window through end-2026 for early removal or resignation. The market captures any interruption to his tenure—whether through formal resignation, impeachment, death, or effective incapacity—with immediate resolution if such an announcement occurs, regardless of implementation timing.

Iranian presidential transitions have historically followed either constitutional processes (impeachment requiring parliamentary supermajority) or extra-constitutional events. Raisi's 2024 death demonstrated how rapidly succession can occur; his predecessor Hassan Rouhani completed two full terms without removal. Pezeshkian's current 36% implied probability reflects baseline institutional risk rather than imminent crisis signals. Comparable regional leaders face similar tenure volatility: Iraq's rotating premierships and Lebanon's factional pressures suggest 2–3 year survival rates of 60–75% in unstable contexts, though Iran's clerical structure provides greater continuity than parliamentary systems.

Traders monitoring this market should track parliamentary dynamics, particularly conservative faction strength in the 2024–2025 legislative session, and any health-related developments given Pezeshkian's age (69). Programmatically, conditional orders tied to Iranian state media announcements or parliamentary session schedules offer precision entry points. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP on factional tensions within Iran's government provides baseline sentiment; formal impeachment motions or Guardian Council statements would constitute actionable signals. The market's sensitivity to geopolitical escalation—particularly US sanctions or military tensions—warrants integration with broader Iran-exposure indices for hedging purposes.

Methodology

We track Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.