Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the one-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026. This specific timestamp determines the market resolution, with the outcome "No" applying if the price falls outside the defined brackets or if the data is unavailable.

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited sharp volatility around mid-year dates, with a peak of $126,198 reached in October 2025 followed by a significant correction to approximately $72,145 by early June 2026[3]. Current trading data shows the asset hovering near $61,558, aligning closely with the market's leading outcome of $60,000–$62,000 at 67% probability[1][6]. The 1% implied probability for the "Yes" outcome suggests traders view the specific bracket as highly unlikely given the current price trajectory and recent downward momentum of roughly $33,500 over the past year[3].

Traders should monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate schedule and any upcoming US macroeconomic data releases, as these dependencies often drive immediate crypto volatility. Recent reports indicate Bitcoin is projected to increase by 5% this week, potentially reaching $62,513, which could influence the final candle close[4]. Programmatically, a power-user would deploy a conditional order bot to track the 1-minute candle close on Binance, setting alerts for deviations from the $61,500 baseline to capture the final resolution value before the 16:00 UTC settlement window[2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.