Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is whether any nation will formally issue a government decree recognising Israel as a sovereign state between November 2025 and June 2026. With the crowd-implied probability sitting at 0%, the market reflects a near-certainty that no new recognitions will occur in this window, despite the geopolitical turbulence surrounding the region.

Historically, state recognitions of Israel have been rare and typically tied to major diplomatic breakthroughs, such as the 2020 Abraham Accords that brought Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and the UAE into formal recognition[1]. Since then, only Kosovo and Somaliland have added to the list, with Somaliland’s recognition occurring in late December 2025 as a reciprocal move after Israel recognised Somaliland first[2]. These cases show that new recognitions are usually reactive, not proactive, and depend on prior diplomatic gestures from Israel itself. Given that no such reciprocal gestures have been announced for late 2025 or early 2026, the 0% probability aligns with historical precedent.

Traders should monitor scheduled UN General Assembly sessions in September 2025 and any bilateral talks between Israel and non-recognising Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, which remains a key dependency for any future breakthrough[4]. Recent reporting from Al Jazeera notes that while over 150 countries now recognise Palestine, this has not translated into reciprocal recognitions of Israel by those same states[5]. Programmatically, this market would be approached by setting conditional orders tied to official government press releases rather than media speculation, as only formal decrees count for resolution. With the settlement window closing in June 2026 and no catalysts emerging, the 0% probability remains robust.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.