Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mojtaba Khamenei, the younger son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would need to physically depart Iranian territory—either by aircraft crossing into another nation's airspace with confirmed landing, or by maritime vessel entering international waters—for this market to settle affirmatively by 30 April 2026. The resolution criteria distinguish between transit and actual exit; a flight departing Tehran does not trigger settlement unless independent confirmation emerges that Mojtaba disembarked outside Iran's borders.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison. Senior Iranian officials have occasionally travelled abroad for medical treatment, religious pilgrimage, or diplomatic engagement, though such movements typically occur with state coordination and advance notice. The Supreme Leader's immediate family members face heightened security protocols and travel restrictions; Mojtaba's position as a potential successor to his father makes unsanctioned departure extraordinarily unlikely. No credible reporting has suggested imminent travel plans or circumstances that would necessitate sudden departure as of late 2024.

Traders monitoring this market should track Iranian state media announcements regarding Mojtaba's public appearances and any shifts in factional power dynamics within the Islamic Republic. Geopolitical escalation—particularly involving direct military confrontation or internal instability—could theoretically alter calculations around regime continuity, though such scenarios remain speculative. Programmatically, this market functions as a tail-risk hedge; the 0% crowd probability reflects the structural implausibility of the event under baseline conditions, making it suitable for conditional order strategies that activate only upon specific triggering events in broader Iran-related markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.