Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade. A 7-day moving average of 60 daily transit calls would represent a return to pre-disruption baseline; the waterway typically sustains 55–70 arrivals per day under normal conditions. Current market pricing at 0% reflects sustained constraints: Houthi attacks on shipping, Iranian naval activity, and insurance premiums have depressed traffic since late 2023. IMF Portwatch data—the settlement arbiter here—tracks actual vessel arrivals by class and provides the only standardised, publicly auditable metric for this outcome.

Historical precedent matters for calibrating recovery timelines. After the 2011 Suez Canal blockade, transit normalisation took 3–4 months once the obstruction cleared. The 2022 Russia–Ukraine disruption to Black Sea grain corridors saw partial rerouting within weeks but full normalisation over six months. Hormuz differs: the constraint is security-driven rather than infrastructure-based, meaning recovery depends on de-escalation or sustained military escort operations rather than engineering fixes. Previous Hormuz closures (1987–88, 2019 tanker incidents) showed traffic rebounds once insurers and operators perceive risk reduction, not when threats formally end.

Traders monitoring this outcome should track Iranian nuclear negotiations, Houthi capability assessments from US Central Command, and insurance market signals—particularly P&I club premium adjustments and Lloyd's List coverage of transit incidents. The 18-month settlement window allows for multiple geopolitical inflection points. Programmatically, a bot tracking IMF Portwatch's rolling 7-day average would need daily ingestion; the resolution hinges on a single data point crossing the threshold, making this suitable for conditional order automation once upstream risk indicators shift materially.

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.