"The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

An animated feature film directed by Nora Twomey is scheduled for theatrical release on 29 May 2026, with opening weekend box office performance (29–31 May) forming the settlement basis for this market. The Numbers will serve as the authoritative source for final three-day domestic figures, excluding studio estimates. Current crowd probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about release timing or material doubt regarding theatrical viability at that date.

Comparable animated releases offer calibration points for traders building conditional logic around this outcome. Animated films targeting family audiences typically gross between $15–45 million domestically over opening weekends, depending on franchise recognition, marketing spend, and competitive landscape. Recent original animated properties without established IP have underperformed theatrical expectations; conversely, studio-backed releases with sustained marketing campaigns have exceeded modest projections. The 2026 May release window places this film in direct competition with summer tentpole season, where animated features often struggle against live-action blockbusters and established franchises. Traders should monitor whether the film maintains its scheduled release date through production announcements and studio communications, as delays or format changes (direct-to-streaming release) would render the market void or trigger alternative settlement conditions.

Programmatic traders should establish conditional monitoring for production updates, marketing spend announcements, and competing May 2026 releases. Tracking pre-release metrics—trailer engagement, social sentiment, critic screenings—provides leading indicators for opening weekend performance bands. Settlement dependency on The Numbers' final figures (not estimates) creates a lag between actual performance and market resolution, requiring patience through early June reporting cycles.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.