Market statistics
- Total volume
- $5.3M
- 24h volume
- $138K
- Liquidity
- $71K
- Open interest
- $313K
- Comments
- 80
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies,
Wikipedia Context
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United States Armed Forces
The United States Armed Forces are the military forces of the United States. United States federal law establishes six armed forces: the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard, each assigned specific roles and operational domains. With the exception of the Coast Guard, which operates under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
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US military watches
US military watches are watches that are issued to US military personnel.
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War in Afghanistan (2001–2021)The war in Afghanistan was a prolonged armed conflict lasting from 2001 to 2021. It began with an invasion by a United States–led coalition under the name Operation Enduring Freedom in response to the September 11 attacks (9/11) carried out by the Taliban-allied and Afghanistan-based al-Qaeda. The Taliban were expelled from major population centers by Americ
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2003 invasion of IraqThe 2003 invasion of Iraq was the first stage of the Iraq War. The invasion began on 20 March 2003 and lasted just over one month, including 26 days of major combat operations. The invasion was conducted by a United States-led coalition of mainly American, British, Australian, and Polish troops.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade US military action against Cuba by 2026? on PolyGram
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