Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical oil chokepoint, with roughly one-fifth of global petroleum passing through its narrow waters daily. This market tracks whether daily ship transits through the strait will reach a specified threshold on any single day before the end of May 2026, using IMF Portwatch data as the authoritative source. The resolution hinges on a single day's arrival count meeting or exceeding the target figure—a binary outcome that depends on real-time maritime traffic patterns rather than policy announcements or geopolitical declarations.

Historical transit volumes through Hormuz average between 80 and 120 vessel arrivals per day, though this fluctuates with seasonal demand, refinery maintenance cycles, and regional tensions. The 20% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in a threshold substantially above typical daily traffic. Comparable periods of elevated transits occurred during 2022 sanctions-evasion activity and early 2023 when Chinese crude imports spiked; these episodes produced isolated days exceeding 130 arrivals. Traders evaluating this market should cross-reference historical Portwatch data against OPEC production schedules and Iranian export patterns to establish realistic baseline expectations.

Programmatic monitoring would require automated feeds from IMF Portwatch's daily publications, ideally with conditional order logic triggering on threshold breach. Watch for announcements regarding US sanctions policy, Iranian oil export capacity changes, and geopolitical incidents affecting the strait's navigability. Recent tensions in late 2024 created temporary routing disruptions; any escalation could suppress transits, whilst sanctions relief would likely elevate them. The settlement window's length allows for multiple opportunities, but the single-day resolution structure means traders cannot rely on cumulative effects.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.