"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

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Market context

Paramount Pictures will release the latest instalment in the Scary Movie franchise on 6 June 2026, with opening weekend box office performance measured across the 5–7 June period. The franchise has not released a theatrical film since 2013, making this a revival after a 13-year gap. Settlement depends on final reported figures from The Numbers' Box Office tab once studio estimates are replaced with actual receipts, with ties resolving to the higher bracket.

The original Scary Movie (2000) opened to $42.3 million domestically, whilst its 2001 sequel grossed $32.2 million. By 2013, Scary Movie 5 managed only $15.0 million, reflecting declining audience appetite for the parody formula over time. Horror-comedies released in June have shown variable performance; A Quiet Place Day One (2024) opened to $28.3 million, whilst Happy Death Day (2017) achieved $26.0 million. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect this revival to underperform historical franchise benchmarks significantly, possibly reflecting franchise fatigue, market saturation in horror-comedy, or scheduling headwinds against established summer competition.

Traders monitoring this market should track pre-release metrics: Rotten Tomatoes scores upon critic embargo lifts (typically one week prior), CinemaScore polling, and theatre count allocation decisions. Paramount's marketing spend and social media engagement will signal confidence levels. Competing releases and holiday scheduling—Father's Day falls on 15 June—may fragment the opening weekend audience. Programmatic traders should establish conditional orders around review aggregation thresholds and set alerts for any franchise announcement updates that could shift sentiment materially before settlement closes on 8 June.

Methodology

We track "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.