Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the US government issued an export-control directive under national-security authorities, ordering Anthropic to suspend all access to Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 for foreign nationals globally. To ensure compliance without real-time segmentation of user nationality, Anthropic abruptly disabled both models for every customer worldwide, while leaving all other Claude models, including Opus 4.8, fully operational[1][6].

Historically, similar export-control suspensions tied to single jailbreak discoveries have resulted in permanent or multi-year restrictions rather than quick reversals, as seen in prior semiconductor and software blacklists where national-security claims blocked re-access indefinitely[3]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects this precedent: once a frontier model is flagged for national security, restoration is rare unless the underlying threat is demonstrably neutralised, which has not occurred here.

Traders should monitor three catalysts: an official Anthropic statement confirming the jailbreak is patched, a US government notice lifting the directive, or a new model release explicitly confirmed as functionally identical to Fable 5 under the same naming convention (e.g. Mythos 5.1)[2][7]. Reuters recently reported the US ordered the hold citing national-security concerns, with no indication of imminent policy change[4]. Programmatically, conditional orders should trigger only on explicit regulatory clearance, not speculative announcements, given the high barrier to reversal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.