Colombia Presidential Election

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold a presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff on 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority. The settlement window closes at the second-round date, meaning traders must account for the full electoral calendar and any delays in official certification. Current incumbent Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022 with 50.4% in a runoff against Rodolfo Hernández, cannot seek immediate re-election under Colombian constitutional rules, creating an open field for 2026.

Historical precedent suggests Colombian runoffs are common: three of the last four presidential elections (2010, 2014, 2018) required second rounds. The 2022 race saw significant polling volatility in the months preceding the vote, with Petro trailing in early surveys before consolidating support. Traders monitoring this market should expect candidate announcements and coalition-building to intensify from late 2025 onwards, with formal campaign periods typically beginning several months before polling day. Programmatic approaches should flag official candidacy registrations through Colombia's National Electoral Council (CNE), which publishes timelines and candidate lists; these serve as hard data points for conditional orders and portfolio rebalancing.

Key catalysts include primary elections within major coalitions, economic data affecting voter sentiment on inflation and employment, and any constitutional challenges to candidacy. The CNE's official results announcement, typically within days of the runoff, determines final settlement. Traders should monitor Colombian news outlets and the CNE website directly for certification timelines, as international reporting may lag official declarations by several days.

Methodology

This page reviews Colombia Presidential Election across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.