Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The US and Iran have maintained an undeclared ceasefire following escalations in early 2024, with neither side conducting direct kinetic strikes on the other's territory. This market tests whether that restraint holds through a specified date, with resolution hinging on official US government confirmation or overwhelming credible reporting of American military action on Iranian soil. The resolution criteria require confirmation within one calendar day of any qualifying action, creating a narrow window for traders to monitor official statements and major news outlets simultaneously.

Historical precedent suggests such ceasefires are fragile but durable when both parties face domestic or regional constraints. The 2020 Soleimani assassination and subsequent Iranian missile strikes lasted weeks before de-escalation; the 2022 Saudi-Houthi ceasefire held for months despite repeated violations by non-state actors. Current probability at 100% reflects market participants' assessment that neither Washington nor Tehran has immediate incentive for direct confrontation, though this consensus could shift rapidly. Traders should note that proxy activity—strikes by Houthi forces, Iraqi militias, or other non-state actors—does not trigger resolution; only direct US kinetic action qualifies.

Key catalysts include Congressional scheduling of Iran-related votes, statements from US Central Command, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announcements, and escalations in regional proxy conflicts. Monitor Reuters, AP, and official Pentagon briefings for real-time confirmation signals. Programmatically, traders building conditional orders should weight the one-day confirmation window heavily; automated systems tracking official .gov domains and major newswire feeds will capture resolution-triggering events faster than manual monitoring. The market's current pricing leaves minimal margin for tail-risk hedging, suggesting traders view near-term escalation probability as genuinely low rather than merely discounted.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.