Iran leadership change by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is whether Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader since March 2026, will be removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as the de facto leader before the end of 2026. His succession occurred immediately after his father, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the opening wave of the 2026 Iran conflict, during which Mojtaba himself was injured but survived [1][4].

Historically, supreme leader transitions in Iran have been stable once the Assembly of Experts confirms a successor, with no recorded case of a newly appointed leader being ousted within their first year unless under extreme external coercion or internal coup [5][7]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects this institutional inertia, mirroring the 2005 succession of Ali Khamenei, who remained in power for over a decade despite domestic unrest and international pressure [8].

Traders should monitor official announcements from the Assembly of Experts, scheduled clerical meetings in Qom, and any sudden shifts in Guardian Council positioning, as these are primary dependencies for leadership continuity [5]. Recent reporting from Iran International notes Mojtaba’s growing influence over seminaries and his role as a consensus candidate, suggesting low immediate risk of removal [5]. A sudden detention order or public resignation would be the definitive catalyst for a “Yes” resolution, though none has materialised as of June 2026. Programmatically, conditional orders could be triggered on news feeds mentioning “detention”, “resignation”, or “removal” tied to Mojtaba Khamenei, allowing automated exposure to this binary outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran leadership change by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.