Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade. A 7-day moving average of 60+ daily transit calls would represent a return to pre-disruption baseline traffic levels. Current throughput has been depressed by regional tensions, including attacks on shipping and military posturing, which have prompted rerouting via longer passages around Africa and increased insurance premiums. The market settles YES if IMF Portwatch data shows this threshold met at any point through end-2026.

Historical precedent suggests recovery timelines vary sharply depending on trigger type. The 2019 tanker attacks saw traffic resume normal patterns within weeks once insurance mechanisms adapted. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine spillover effects took months to normalise, partly because alternative routes became entrenched in supply chains. Current geopolitical friction in the Gulf has persisted longer, with some shipping lines maintaining diversion strategies even as incident frequency has moderated. A trader monitoring this would want to track both incident reporting (via maritime security databases) and insurance premium compression—when war-risk premiums fall materially, captains typically revert to the shortest route.

Programmatically, this market rewards automation around IMF Portwatch publication schedules and threshold detection. A conditional order structure—triggering settlement confirmation alerts once the 7-day average crosses 60—reduces manual monitoring burden. The key dependency is IMF data quality and publication lag; delays in reporting can obscure whether recovery has actually occurred. Traders should cross-reference Portwatch figures against AIS tracking data from alternative sources to validate signals before committing capital, particularly given the binary nature of the settlement condition.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.