Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's removal or resignation from the presidency before 30 June 2026 remains a low-probability event, though the market's 1% implied probability reflects genuine legal and constitutional pathways. The resolution criteria distinguish between temporary and permanent removal; only the latter qualifies, meaning a brief invocation of the 25th Amendment or a medical episode that does not result in permanent departure would not trigger a "Yes" outcome. An announcement of resignation or removal before the settlement date resolves the market immediately, regardless of the effective date stated in that announcement.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Richard Nixon's 1974 resignation occurred under threat of impeachment and removal, whilst no sitting US president has been removed via the 25th Amendment. Impeachment requires House passage and Senate conviction by a two-thirds majority—a threshold not met against Trump during his first term despite two impeachment votes. The 25th Amendment Section 4 process (Cabinet-initiated removal) has never been invoked and faces significant political and constitutional friction. Current Republican control of both chambers substantially reduces removal risk through legislative means.

Traders monitoring this market should track congressional composition changes following the 2026 midterm elections (held 3 November 2026, after this market's close), indictment developments in ongoing cases, and any statements from Trump's medical team or inner circle regarding his fitness to serve. Recent reporting on Trump's health and campaign schedule provides baseline data; material changes in either would warrant reassessment. For programmatic approaches, conditional orders tied to specific news categories—impeachment votes, Cabinet resignations, or formal health announcements—offer more precision than simple price monitoring.

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.