Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Donald Trump's public statements have historically included personal attacks on political opponents, media figures, and former allies. This market asks whether he will publicly insult a specific individual between now and 31 May 2026. The resolution criteria cover a broad range of negative commentary—from derogatory nicknames to characterisations of weakness or disloyalty—provided the remarks are made in public forums including social media, rallies, press conferences, or interviews.

Trump's pattern of public criticism offers a baseline for calibrating probability. During his 2016 campaign and presidency, he regularly issued personal attacks on figures ranging from Hillary Clinton to James Comey to Mitch McConnell, often via Twitter. Post-presidency, his Truth Social account has continued this pattern, with notable recent targets including Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley during the 2024 primary cycle. The 3% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in either a significant behavioural shift or uncertainty about the specific individual's identity remaining undisclosed at market creation.

Traders monitoring this market should track Trump's scheduled public appearances—campaign events, media interviews, and social media activity—as these represent the primary channels through which such statements would surface. Any announcement regarding the unnamed target's political or business activities could serve as a catalyst. Programmatically, a monitoring system would need to aggregate statements across multiple platforms and apply consistent criteria for what constitutes an insult versus standard political criticism, a distinction that may require manual review given the subjective nature of tone and intent in written statements.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.