Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?

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Market context

Iran's nuclear programme remains one of the most closely monitored geopolitical flashpoints. This market hinges on whether Iran will publicly commit to surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile—either unilaterally or through negotiation with the United States, Israel, or another party—by 31 March 2026. The threshold is low: any public pledge to transfer, ship, or place any portion of the stockpile qualifies for resolution as "Yes". The current 0% crowd probability reflects the substantial distance between Iran's stated nuclear sovereignty and the conditions Western powers have historically demanded.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) required Iran to dilute or export most of its enriched uranium, yet Iran began reversing compliance after the US withdrew in 2018. By 2024, Iran's stockpile had grown to over 140 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity—far below weapons-grade but substantially above the 3.65% limit set by the JCPOA. Previous surrender agreements have required either regime change, military pressure, or comprehensive sanctions relief; Libya's 2003 nuclear handover occurred under threat of invasion, whilst North Korea has repeatedly pledged and reneged on disarmament without surrendering material.

Traders monitoring this market should track US diplomatic initiatives following the 2024 election cycle, Israeli military posture statements, and any UN Security Council resolutions. The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly reports on Iran's stockpile levels will provide verification benchmarks. Programmatically, this market rewards those watching for official Iranian government statements—whether from the Foreign Ministry or nuclear negotiators—rather than speculation. The settlement window's 15-month runway means conditional orders tied to specific diplomatic announcements or sanctions relief packages would be more reliable than static positions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.