Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's presidency could end through resignation, removal via the 25th Amendment, impeachment and conviction, or death before 30 June 2026. The market's 1% probability reflects the low historical frequency of presidential departure outside scheduled elections. No sitting US president has resigned since Richard Nixon in 1974, and removal via impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority—a threshold unmet even when Trump faced two impeachment trials during his first term.

The 25th Amendment Section 4 mechanism, which allows the cabinet and vice president to declare a president unfit, has never been invoked for removal. Comparable jurisdictions offer limited precedent: most Westminster systems feature votes of no confidence rather than fixed terms, whilst US constitutional removal remains extraordinarily rare. The Nixon precedent itself involved bipartisan pressure and near-certain conviction; current Senate composition makes such alignment improbable through mid-2026.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track health disclosures, cabinet stability, and legislative developments around impeachment or 25th Amendment discussions. Recent reporting on Trump's medical examinations and public appearances provides baseline data; any announcement of serious health events, cabinet resignations en masse, or formal impeachment proceedings would immediately shift pricing. The market's settlement hinges on announcement timing rather than effective date, meaning conditional orders tied to news feeds or legislative calendars could capture volatility spikes. Given the structural barriers to removal, sustained probability movement would require extraordinary political or health developments.

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.