What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

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Market context

The central question is whether the Trump administration will formally accept Iran's continued uranium enrichment as part of any bilateral or multilateral agreement by May 2026. This differs materially from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which permitted enrichment only up to 3.65% purity under strict International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring. The market specifically includes any accord that permits enrichment with or without caps, provided the US explicitly accepts the right to continue rather than demanding cessation.

Historical precedent suggests the probability reflects genuine structural difficulty. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and pursued maximum pressure; his first administration never accepted Iranian enrichment beyond the JCPOA baseline. The Obama-era negotiation took two years of intensive talks and required Iran to dismantle centrifuges and ship enriched material abroad. Comparable cases—North Korea's weapons programme, Libya's 2003 capitulation—show that US administrations rarely concede enrichment rights without reciprocal constraints. The 20% implied probability aligns with scenarios where either a major geopolitical shift (regional conflict resolution, sanctions relief in exchange for other concessions) or internal US political pressure forces a reversal of stated policy.

Traders should monitor IAEA reports on Iranian enrichment levels, any direct US-Iran diplomatic channels, and statements from the State Department or Trump's negotiating team. The IAEA's quarterly technical reports provide objective data on enrichment progress. Announcements regarding sanctions relief, prisoner exchanges, or regional de-escalation would serve as leading indicators. The settlement window extends through May 2026, allowing approximately 18 months for formal agreement text to emerge and be ratified or implemented.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.