Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are scheduled to hold their next in-person summit at a U.S. military installation in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday, 15 August 2025, marking the first face-to-face encounter between the two leaders during Trump’s second term. This confirmed engagement directly contradicts the market’s current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a meeting occurring before June 2026, as the Anchorage summit falls well within the settlement window ending 30 June 2026.

Historically, high-stakes diplomatic meetings between U.S. and Russian presidents have frequently occurred in neutral or strategically significant locations, such as the 2018 Helsinki summit or the 2021 Geneva talks, with Anchorage representing a rare domestic U.S. venue chosen for its proximity to the Pacific and symbolic weight. The prior Anchorage meeting in August 2025 concluded without formal agreements, yet it satisfied the market’s definition of a meeting through direct conversation and handshake, establishing a precedent that even inconclusive summits resolve the market as “YES” for a meeting occurring.

Traders should monitor official White House travel schedules, Kremlin press releases, and any shifts in Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, as these are the primary catalysts for confirming or altering summit logistics. Recent reporting from NBC News confirms the Anchorage location and date, while ABC News notes Trump’s public announcement of the meeting, providing verifiable evidence that a qualifying encounter is imminent and programmatically tradable via conditional orders tied to news feeds or official calendar updates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.