How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Earth experiences roughly 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or above each month on average, according to USGS historical data. A seven-day window therefore typically captures between two and four events globally, though distribution is highly uneven—some weeks pass with none, whilst others see multiple significant tremors across different tectonic zones. The current crowd probability of 0% reflects either extreme confidence in an unusually quiet week ahead or insufficient liquidity to price the base rate accurately.

Historical precedent matters here. Between 2015 and 2024, USGS records show that roughly 70% of seven-day periods contained at least one magnitude 5.5+ event. The remaining 30% were genuinely quiet. June 2026 carries no known elevated seismic risk from major fault systems; no large foreshocks have been reported in the preceding weeks that would suggest clustering. The Philippines, Indonesia, and the Pacific Ring of Fire remain chronically active zones, but short-term prediction remains impossible—seismic activity follows no calendar pattern.

For programmatic monitoring, traders should query the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program API directly rather than relying on news aggregation, as significant events are catalogued within minutes of detection but may take 24–48 hours to reach mainstream outlets. The resolution source explicitly references USGS search parameters, so any automated tracking system should mirror those exact filters: global scope, magnitude threshold 5.5, and the precise UTC window. Settlement occurs on 8 June at 03:59 UTC, allowing a small buffer for late-catalogued events, though the USGS typically finalises magnitudes within hours of occurrence.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.