Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group G fixture between Egypt and IR Iran, set to kick off at Seattle Stadium on 27 June 2026 at 03:00 UTC, is the real-world event determining the outcome of this exact-score market. With the settlement window closing shortly after the match concludes, the current 16% crowd-implied probability for a specific scoreline suggests traders are pricing in a tight, low-scoring contest where Egypt holds a slight edge as the Opta supercomputer favours them in 44.1% of simulations[1][2].

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages with similar probabilities often resolve to 1-0 or 1-1 outcomes, reflecting the defensive discipline typical of African and Asian qualifiers. Egypt’s recent 3-1 victory over New Zealand demonstrates clinical attacking potential, while Iran’s 2-2 draw against the same opponent indicates a vulnerability to conceding multiple goals yet retaining competitiveness[4]. Programmatic traders should model conditional orders around these narrow scorelines, treating the 16% probability as a signal for a high-value conditional bet if the live odds drift above 20% during the first half.

Key catalysts include the confirmed line-ups released by FIFA, which list Szymon Marciniak as the referee, a factor that often influences penalty and foul counts in tight matches[6]. Traders must monitor Mohamed Salah’s fitness status, as his presence significantly alters Egypt’s goal-scoring probability, and watch for any pre-match tactical announcements from Iran’s coach regarding defensive formations[2]. Recent training footage confirms Iran’s squad is fully prepared, but no new injury reports have emerged since the official team announcement[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.