Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup fixture between Senegal and Iraq in Toronto on 26 June 2026 is the real-world event driving this market, with the match kicking off at 3:00 PM ET. Senegal, appearing in their fourth World Cup after strong runs in 2002 and recent qualifiers, faces Iraq in a Group I clash where the crowd-implied probability for an exact score outcome sits at just 4% YES, suggesting the market expects a high degree of variance in the final result [3][6].

Historically, exact score markets in World Cup group stages rarely exceed 5% probability unless one team is a dominant favourite with a clear defensive record, yet Senegal’s recent head-to-head shows 4 wins in 5 matches against Iraq with an average of 2.0 points per game, indicating a competitive but not overwhelming edge [4][8]. Comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 show that exact score outcomes in matches between African and Asian teams typically resolve to “Any Other Score” due to unpredictable goal distributions, making the current 4% figure a tight but plausible entry point for programmatic traders using conditional orders [1][2].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and training updates released by FIFA, as both teams have published training videos ahead of the fixture, which may reveal tactical shifts affecting goal expectancy [5][7]. The over/under 2.5 goals market is priced at -182 for over, hinting that the market anticipates at least three goals, a key dependency for exact score conditional strategies [2]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the match spread and moneyline odds, providing the necessary data feed for algorithmic traders to model exact score probabilities programmatically [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.