Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The UEFA Champions League final between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal takes place on 30 May 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact scoreline at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded from consideration. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 10% implied probability for this specific outcome reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise match results; even heavily favoured teams rarely exceed 15–20% probability on individual exact scores in Champions League finals.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in major finals cluster heavily around the "Any Other Score" category. Of the last eight Champions League finals (2018–2025), only two resolved to a single pre-listed exact score with better than 8% backing. PSG's recent form—averaging 2.1 goals per match in European competition—and Arsenal's defensive record (1.3 goals conceded per match in knockout stages) point towards lower-scoring outcomes, yet even 1–0 or 2–1 results rarely exceed 12–15% probability when modelled across all permutations. Traders using conditional orders or bot-assisted monitoring should note that injury announcements in the fortnight before the fixture typically shift probabilities by 2–3 percentage points per key player absence.

Programmatic traders should track team news releases and official UEFA communications from late May onwards. PSG's midfield availability and Arsenal's defensive lineup confirmation typically emerge 7–10 days pre-match. Historical weather data for the venue and recent head-to-head records (PSG won 2–0 in their last competitive meeting, 2022) provide baseline calibration points. Settlement occurs at 16:00 UTC on match day; delayed or postponed fixtures keep the market open until the match concludes.

Methodology

We track Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.