Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket App UK Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Polymarket App UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Polymarket App UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Polymarket App UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Polymarket App UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Polymarket App UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Polymarket App UK.
Active sub-markets
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| September 30, 2026 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The underlying event is whether Solana’s SOL/USDT price on Binance will exceed its previous all-time high of approximately $294.33, recorded on 19 January 2025, during a specific two-minute window in December 2025. With the current crowd-implied probability at 0% and the settlement window ending 1 January 2027, the market treats this outcome as virtually impossible under present conditions, where SOL trades near $71.
Historically, Solana’s price run from $0.22 in March 2020 to $295 in January 2025 was driven by explosive NFT and DeFi adoption, pushing gains over 11,000% in 2021 alone[1]. Yet since that peak, the asset has not revisited $200, and recent data shows it hovering around $71 with modest 24-hour volatility[2][5]. The 0% probability reflects the stark gap between current levels and the $294 threshold, with no comparable post-peak surge in crypto history matching such a rapid retest without a major catalyst.
Traders should monitor Solana’s ecosystem developments, including network upgrades, institutional inflows, and macro crypto trends, as these are the primary dependencies for a breakout. Recent reporting notes Solana briefly surpassed Binance Coin in market cap at $107B while price rose above $200 for the first time since June 2025, signalling latent momentum[4]. Programmatically, this market would be approached by querying Binance’s 1-minute candle data via their public API[9], filtering for the exact December 2025 window, and comparing the “High” value against the $294.33 benchmark to determine resolution.
Methodology
We track Solana all time high by 2027? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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