Market statistics
- Total volume
- $641K
- 24h volume
- $573K
- Liquidity
- $718K
- Open interest
- $544K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
33% | 67% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
33% | 67% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Available prediction outcomes (13)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Flavio Cobolli. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this
Wikipedia Context
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Stade Roland GarrosStade Roland Garros is a complex of tennis courts, including stadiums, located in Paris that hosts the French Open. That tournament, also known as Roland Garros, is a major tennis championship played annually in late May and early June. The complex is named after Roland Garros (1888–1918), a pioneering French aviator, and was constructed in 1928 to host Fran
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Roland Garros (aviator)Eugène Adrien Roland Georges Garros was a French aviation pioneer and fighter pilot. A self-taught pilot, he performed many early aviation feats such as the first-ever airplane crossing of the Mediterranean Sea in 1913. He later joined the French Army and became one of the earliest fighter pilots during First World War.
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Roland Garros AirportRoland Garros Airport, formerly known as Gillot Airport, is an international airport located in Sainte-Marie on Réunion, France. The airport is 7 kilometres (3.8 NM) east of Saint-Denis; it is named after the French aviator Roland Garros, who was born in Saint-Denis.
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French OpenThe French Open, also known as Roland-Garros, is a tennis tournament organized by the French Tennis Federation annually at Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. It is chronologically the second of the four Grand Slam tennis events every year, held after the Australian Open and before Wimbledon and the US Open. It was established in 1891, but it did not becom
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli on PolyGram
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