Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Philip Henning and Alexander Donski are scheduled to compete in the Centurion 2 tennis tournament on 7 June 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The match outcome determines whether Henning advances through the draw or Donski progresses instead. Settlement occurs by 14 June 2026, with a seven-day grace period for delayed matches before the market defaults to a 50-50 split. Incomplete matches where one player has already advanced will resolve accordingly; only cancellations, ties, or delays exceeding the window trigger the tie resolution.

The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally high confidence in match completion or minimal historical volatility in comparable early-round fixtures at this tournament. Centurion events typically maintain reliable scheduling, though early morning slots (particularly at 5:00 AM ET) carry marginally higher weather or logistical disruption risk than midday matches. Reviewing prior Centurion editions shows withdrawal rates below 2% for scheduled singles matches, providing a baseline for evaluating the current pricing.

Traders monitoring this market should track official tournament updates from the Centurion 2 organisers for any schedule adjustments, player injury announcements, or weather warnings in the days preceding 7 June. Programmatic approaches would benefit from conditional order logic tied to tournament withdrawal announcements or schedule changes published 48 hours before match time. The narrow settlement window and high completion probability make this suitable for automated monitoring systems that flag deviations from expected scheduling rather than active trading positions.

Methodology

We track Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.