Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket App UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Winner | 100% |
| Map 4 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Acend (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ICE (-2.5) vs Acend (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Acend (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-6.5) vs Acend (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Acend (-6.5) vs Inner Circle Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-6.5) vs Acend (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ACE (-1.5) vs Inner Circle Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ACE (-2.5) vs Inner Circle Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Acend (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Acend (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-6.5) vs Acend (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to counter-strike: inner circle esports vs acend (bo5) - super draculan playoffs. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between Inner Circle Esports and Acend in the Super DraculaN Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 28 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) … on Polymarket App UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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