IR Iran vs. Gambia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A FIFA International Friendly between Iran and Gambia is scheduled for 29 May 2026. The match forms part of pre-tournament preparation fixtures ahead of the 2026 World Cup in North America. Iran, ranked 20th globally as of late 2024, will face Gambia, a significantly lower-ranked side with minimal competitive history at continental level. The fixture carries asymmetric expectations: Iran enters as heavy favourites given their AFC qualification status and established international infrastructure, whilst Gambia's participation in friendlies of this calibre remains relatively uncommon.

The 100% implied probability reflects the substantial quality gap between the two nations. Iran has qualified for four consecutive World Cups and maintains regular competitive fixtures within AFC competitions. Gambia, by contrast, has never qualified for a World Cup and competes primarily in CAF (African) qualifiers. Historical precedent suggests matches between teams of this ranking disparity—typically separated by 100+ positions—settle as Iran victories in roughly 85–95% of cases, though friendly fixtures introduce scheduling volatility and squad rotation that can affect outcomes.

Programmatic traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations, typically released 10–14 days before the match. Iran's participation in concurrent AFC competitions may influence player availability; Gambia's fixture list carries less scheduling complexity. Venue confirmation and weather conditions at the designated stadium merit tracking, as do any late withdrawals or injury updates. Settlement hinges on official FIFA records, making fixture confirmation through FIFA's official calendar essential before position entry.

Methodology

We track IR Iran vs. Gambia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.