Jordan vs. Colombia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will face Jordan in a FIFA International Friendly on 7 June 2026, a non-competitive fixture scheduled during the international break. The 7% implied probability for a Jordan victory reflects the substantial gap in competitive standing between the two nations. Colombia currently ranks around 12th in the FIFA World Rankings, whilst Jordan sits outside the top 50, making an outright win for the lower-ranked side a statistical outlier in modern international football.

Historical precedent suggests friendlies involving significant ranking disparities rarely produce upset results. Colombia's recent record against substantially weaker opposition shows consistent victories; in comparable fixtures over the past three years, teams ranked in the top 15 have won against opponents ranked 50+ approximately 85–90% of the time. The 7% probability appears calibrated to account for the inherent volatility of single-match outcomes and the possibility of experimental team selections, injuries to key Colombian players, or tactical experimentation that could narrow the performance gap.

Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements from both federations, typically released 7–10 days before the fixture. Colombia's participation in Copa América qualification rounds or other commitments may affect player availability and focus. Jordan's domestic league schedule and any concurrent regional tournament obligations will similarly influence preparation intensity. Real-time team news feeds and official federation communications become critical data points as the settlement window approaches; a significant injury to Colombia's attacking contingent or confirmation of a heavily rotated lineup could materially shift the probability upwards. Conditional order logic should account for these announcement clusters, as probability movements often concentrate around official squad releases rather than distributing evenly across the pre-match period.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.