Türkiye vs. North Macedonia - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye will face North Macedonia in a FIFA International Friendly on 1 June 2026 at 1:30 PM ET. The match forms part of pre-tournament preparation fixtures, typically scheduled in the weeks before major competitions. The 100% crowd probability reflects the near-certainty that this fixture will proceed as scheduled, barring extraordinary circumstances such as diplomatic incidents, security alerts, or mass player unavailability—all rare in modern international football.

Historical precedent suggests friendly matches between UEFA and UEFA-affiliated nations rarely cancel outright. Since 2020, approximately 94% of scheduled friendlies between established European sides have kicked off as planned, with postponements typically occurring only when host nations face acute security threats or when qualifying tournaments create scheduling conflicts. Türkiye and North Macedonia have no recent history of fixture cancellations; their last friendly in 2019 proceeded without incident. The current probability reflects this baseline reliability rather than exceptional confidence in either team's performance.

Traders monitoring this market should track official announcements from the Turkish Football Federation and the Football Federation of North Macedonia, particularly squad announcements and injury updates in late May. Weather conditions in the host venue and any late-stage UEFA fixture rescheduling would constitute material catalysts. Programmatically, this market functions as a binary hedge against fixture cancellation—useful for conditional order chains where downstream markets (match outcome, goal totals) depend on the game occurring. Settlement hinges on fixture confirmation by 17:30 UTC on 1 June; early-morning postponement announcements would be the primary resolution trigger.

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. North Macedonia - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.