Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket App UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 96% |
| France O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| Team to Advance | 89% |
| O/U 1.5 | 85% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| France O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| France 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| O/U 2.5 | 65% |
| France (-1.5) | 56% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Sweden O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score | 49% |
| France O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| France (-2.5) | 34% |
| Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| France 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 30% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| France (-3.5) | 17% |
| Sweden O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Sweden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| France (-4.5) | 7% |
| O/U 6.5 | 5% |
| Sweden O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| France (-5.5) | 3% |
| Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 3% |
| Sweden (-1.5) | 2% |
| O/U 7.5 | 2% |
| Sweden (-2.5) | 1% |
| Sweden (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Sweden (-4.5) | 0% |
| Sweden (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for France vs. Sweden - More Markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade France vs. Sweden - More Markets on Polymarket App UK
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