Portugal vs. DR Congo - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Portugal and DR Congo will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 1:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 6% implied probability for this specific scoreline reflects the difficulty of predicting precise match results; even heavily favoured teams rarely produce identical scores across multiple fixtures.

Exact-score markets in World Cup group play historically cluster around common outcomes: 1–0, 2–0, 2–1, and 1–1 results account for roughly 40–50% of all group-stage matches. Portugal's recent tournament record shows they average 1.8 goals per match in World Cup play, whilst DR Congo's defensive vulnerabilities (conceding 2.1 goals per game in qualifying) suggest higher-scoring scenarios are more probable than low-scoring ones. Comparable exact-score bets on Portugal's previous group opponents typically see YES probabilities between 8–12% for specific scorelines, making 6% a relatively compressed position for this particular outcome.

Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements and injury updates through late May 2026, particularly Portugal's attacking depth and DR Congo's goalkeeper fitness. Fixture scheduling—whether either team plays a high-intensity match immediately beforehand—affects fatigue levels and goal-scoring patterns. Conditional order logic works well here: setting automated triggers on related markets (Portugal to win, total goals over/under 2.5) can help capture correlated movements before the settlement window closes on 17 June at 5:00 PM UTC.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.