United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match between the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina kicks off at 5 p.m. PT on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, California, with the market resolving on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time[1][4].

Historically, the 6% crowd-implied probability for a specific exact score aligns with patterns seen in knockout football where defensive rigidity often prevails, yet the US men’s national team faces a stark UEFA record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses in their last 12 matches against European opponents, suggesting volatility in scoring outcomes[7]. Comparable Round of 32 fixtures in recent World Cups frequently end in low-scoring draws or narrow one-goal margins, making any single exact score a high-risk proposition unless a clear offensive catalyst emerges, which the current data does not strongly support given Bosnia’s undefeated group stage run[3].

Traders should monitor pre-match team news for lineup changes, particularly regarding the USMNT’s attacking depth after their 3-2 group stage loss to Turkey and 2-0 win against Australia, as these results indicate inconsistent finishing[2]. A key dependency is the official starting XI announcement, expected within hours of kickoff, which will clarify whether the US can overcome their historical struggle against UEFA defences; recent analysis from Fox Sports highlights this worrying stat as a primary factor influencing pre-match odds[7]. Additionally, weather conditions in Santa Clara and potential tactical shifts by Bosnia’s coach, who has maintained an undefeated record in the group stage, will be critical variables for programmatically adjusting conditional orders or copy-trading strategies[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.