ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland

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Market context

Scotland and Ireland will meet in a Women's T20 World Cup group stage fixture on 13 June 2026. The match carries significance for both Associate nations competing in an expanded tournament format. Resolution depends on the official result published by ESPNcricinfo, with any on-field tiebreak mechanism (such as a Super Over) treated as a decisive outcome rather than a draw.

The current 100% YES probability reflects the near-certainty that this fixture will proceed as scheduled. Historical context from recent ICC tournaments shows that Associate-level women's matches have exceptionally high completion rates; cancellations or forfeits at this level remain statistical outliers. The 2022 Women's T20 World Cup saw all scheduled Associate matches completed despite weather disruptions in Australia. For traders building conditional logic around this market, the settlement window extends to 20 June 2026, providing a five-day buffer beyond the scheduled date for any weather-delayed rescheduling or administrative resolution.

Practical monitoring points centre on fixture confirmation and squad announcements from the ICC, typically released 4–6 weeks before tournament commencement. Traders using automated tracking should flag any official postponement notices from the ICC website or ESPNcricinfo's fixture calendar. Venue conditions in the West Indies (the confirmed 2026 host region) may affect scheduling, though ground availability and backup dates are typically pre-arranged for group-stage matches. The probability's ceiling at 100% suggests market participants view logistical risk as negligible; any deviation would signal unexpected administrative or force-majeure developments.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.