Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket App UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs MIBR Academy (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PDAF (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-9.5) vs MIBR Academy (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-9.5) vs Patins da Ferrari (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs MIBR Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs MIBR Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs Patins da Ferrari (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-6.5) vs Patins da Ferrari (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR.A (-1.5) vs Patins da Ferrari (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, counter-strike: mibr academy vs patins da ferrari (bo3) - cct south america series 3 group stage stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between MIBR Academy and Patins da Ferrari in the CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage, initially scheduled for June 28 at …
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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